| nk | NO-GO | Continue | GO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slope, %: -10% | |||
| 20 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.72 | 0.28 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | ||
| 80 | 1.00 | ||
| Slope, %: 10% | |||
| 20 | 0.08 | 0.83 | 0.09 |
| 30 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 0.12 |
| 40 | 0.15 | 0.69 | 0.16 |
| 60 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| 80 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Slope, %: 20% | |||
| 20 | 0.02 | 0.73 | 0.25 |
| 30 | 0.03 | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| 40 | 0.03 | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| 60 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| 80 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Slope, %: 30% | |||
| 20 | 0.01 | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.63 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| 80 | 1.00 | ||
| Slope, %: 40% | |||
| 20 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| 40 | 0.04 | 0.96 | |
| 60 | 1.00 | ||
| 80 | 1.00 | ||
When theta_lrv = 0, theta_TV = 20, tau_LRV = tau_TV = 0.025.
Stopping based on:
| Slope | Stop relapse | Stop TPP | P(top 2) < 0.6 | Stop relapse or TPP | Stop relapse or TPP or P(top 2) < 0.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 0.205 | 0.603 | 1.000 | 0.686 | 1 |
| 10% | 0.232 | 0.112 | 0.977 | 0.317 | 1 |
| 20% | 0.210 | 0.028 | 0.824 | 0.236 | 1 |
De-prioritizing based on:
| Slope | Stop relapse | Stop TPP | P(top 2) < 0.6 | Stop relapse or TPP | Stop relapse or TPP or P(top 2) < 0.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 0.205 | 0.998 | 1.000 | 0.998 | 1 |
| 10% | 0.232 | 0.875 | 0.977 | 0.902 | 1 |
| 20% | 0.210 | 0.640 | 0.824 | 0.720 | 1 |
| Slope | GO relapse | GO TPP | P(top 2) >= 0.6 | GO relapse and TPP | GO relapse and TPP and P(top 2) >= 0.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | 1.00 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| 10% | 1.00 | 0.123 | 0.014 | 0.123 | 0.123 |
| 20% | 0.79 | 0.360 | 0.176 | 0.280 | 0.280 |
| Regimen | Duration | No. patients | No. relapses | \(\hat{\theta}_{0.5}\) | \(\hat{\theta}_{0.025}\) | \(\hat{\theta}_{0.975}\) | TPP decision | \(\hat{\psi}_1\) | \(\hat{\psi}_2\) | \(\hat{\psi}_3\) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 30 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.022 | |||||
| 2 | 16 | 30 | 1 | 0.111 | -0.129 | 0.422 | Continue | 0.808 | 0.001 | 0.026 |
| 3 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 0.233 | -0.012 | 0.569 | Continue | 0.966 | 0.004 | 0.240 |
| 4 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 0.319 | 0.054 | 0.688 | GO | 0.991 | 0.048 | 0.715 |
| 5 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 0.556 | 0.257 | 0.950 | GO | 1.000 | 0.947 | 0.997 |
| condition | nk | p.true.present |
|---|---|---|
| Even | 20 | 0.914 |
| Even | 30 | 0.968 |
| Even | 40 | 0.981 |
| Even | 60 | 1.000 |
| Even | 80 | 1.000 |
| High | 20 | 0.601 |
| High | 30 | 0.648 |
| High | 40 | 0.661 |
| High | 60 | 0.768 |
| High | 80 | 0.786 |
| High-low | 20 | 0.966 |
| High-low | 30 | 0.994 |
| High-low | 40 | 0.998 |
| High-low | 60 | 1.000 |
| High-low | 80 | 1.000 |
| condition | nk | prop | Regimen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even | 20 | 0.002 | Regimen 1 |
| Even | 20 | 0.011 | Regimen 2 |
| Even | 20 | 0.065 | Regimen 3 |
| Even | 20 | 0.250 | Regimen 4 |
| Even | 20 | 0.672 | Regimen 5 |
| Even | 30 | 0.003 | Regimen 2 |
| Even | 30 | 0.042 | Regimen 3 |
| Even | 30 | 0.202 | Regimen 4 |
| Even | 30 | 0.753 | Regimen 5 |
| Even | 40 | 0.024 | Regimen 3 |
| Even | 40 | 0.183 | Regimen 4 |
| Even | 40 | 0.793 | Regimen 5 |
| Even | 60 | 0.069 | Regimen 4 |
| Even | 60 | 0.931 | Regimen 5 |
| Even | 80 | 0.035 | Regimen 4 |
| Even | 80 | 0.965 | Regimen 5 |
| High | 20 | 0.183 | Regimen 2 |
| High | 20 | 0.220 | Regimen 3 |
| High | 20 | 0.271 | Regimen 4 |
| High | 20 | 0.326 | Regimen 5 |
| High | 30 | 0.144 | Regimen 2 |
| High | 30 | 0.210 | Regimen 3 |
| High | 30 | 0.262 | Regimen 4 |
| High | 30 | 0.384 | Regimen 5 |
| High | 40 | 0.142 | Regimen 2 |
| High | 40 | 0.193 | Regimen 3 |
| High | 40 | 0.291 | Regimen 4 |
| High | 40 | 0.374 | Regimen 5 |
| High | 60 | 0.069 | Regimen 2 |
| High | 60 | 0.184 | Regimen 3 |
| High | 60 | 0.277 | Regimen 4 |
| High | 60 | 0.470 | Regimen 5 |
| High | 80 | 0.066 | Regimen 2 |
| High | 80 | 0.146 | Regimen 3 |
| High | 80 | 0.266 | Regimen 4 |
| High | 80 | 0.522 | Regimen 5 |
| High-low | 20 | 0.001 | Regimen 1 |
| High-low | 20 | 0.009 | Regimen 3 |
| High-low | 20 | 0.369 | Regimen 4 |
| High-low | 20 | 0.621 | Regimen 5 |
| High-low | 30 | 0.003 | Regimen 3 |
| High-low | 30 | 0.345 | Regimen 4 |
| High-low | 30 | 0.652 | Regimen 5 |
| High-low | 40 | 0.347 | Regimen 4 |
| High-low | 40 | 0.653 | Regimen 5 |
| High-low | 60 | 0.228 | Regimen 4 |
| High-low | 60 | 0.772 | Regimen 5 |
| High-low | 80 | 0.190 | Regimen 4 |
| High-low | 80 | 0.810 | Regimen 5 |
Frequentist summary of estimator performance across changes in sample size (nk) and differences in \(\log_{10}\)(TTP) slope. For all panels, results are based on 1,000 simulated datasets were used for each sample size and condition. A) The proportion of simulations where a given regimen was estimated to have the steepest slope. B) The proportion of simulations where the steepest estimated slope belonged to one of the true top two steepest regimens. C) The proportion of simulations (y-axis) where the estimated control slope falls outside of the estimated 95% confidence interval for a regimen with a given effect size (x-axis).